Cold Reading by Bob Novella
POSTED: 20 November 98
You have just left a psychic reading and you are amazed. The psychic knew
many things about you that no one else knew and other things
that couldn't possibly have been figured out. The only explanation you can
think of is that some kind of extrasensory perception was
involved. What else could explain it?
If this has not happened to you then you probably know someone who has
related a similar story. A perceptiveness beyond the normal
human senses is not required to explain this phenomenon, however. Human
psychology and a tried and true technique called cold reading
could produce the same results, just as if your mind had been read and your
future foretold.
Cold reading is a skill used by tarot card readers, psychics, palm readers,
iridologists, astrologers, and even salesmen to gather information
about a subject. The process begins with careful observation, supplemented
by knowledge of statistics and the commonalties of human
nature. From these starting points general statements are made, statements
which are likely to be true about almost anybody. Visual and
verbal feedback from the subject is then used to pursue accurate statements
and abandon dead ends, all the time honing the initial guesses to
more and more accurate conclusions. In the hands of an expert, the technique
can be frighteningly successful, almost uncanny.
Cold reading is not one simple trick but a number of different methods for
gleaning surprisingly accurate information about someone's
personality characteristics and problems, all with ostensibly little effort.
By definition this information is gathered on the spot by conversation,
keen observation and a good memory. In contrast, the term 'hot reading' has
been applied to information gathering that precedes visual and
physical contact, usually through special databases, directories and other
resources. Cold readers, though, do not need to rely on such
sources. All that is needed is interaction with the subject. Before any
interaction, though, most accomplished cold readers have as an
information foundation, knowledge of probability and the common denominators
of the human condition.
Probability and statistics enter the picture in ways as simple as knowing
that most male names in our culture begin with the letter "J," while
most female names begin with "M." This can be translated into "I see a woman
in your life, her name begins with "M." Another example is
"I see palm trees near the water." If the subject lives in the north and
appears affluent then there is a high probability of a recent or planned
tropical vacation, and the reader will be judged correct, especially if
there are no temporal limitations like past or future, or perhaps the image
refers to a friend of the subjects.
Assumptions on the motivations and desires affecting most humans will also
help cold readers in their predictions. Most people would agree
therefore with the following line: "I see that you have financial issues
that have to be dealt with." Who doesn't? The word "financial" could
easily be replaced with "sexual" or "work" or "relationship" and still be
valid for almost everyone.
Cold readers begin by taking in as much of the subject as they can, the
clothes, manner of speech, apparent age, physical attributes,
socioeconomic status, and mannerisms. Even someone's eyes and hands can hold
many clues. During this initial assessment the proficient
cold reader quickly winnows all the possible classifications into those that
are most likely. From these preliminary inferences alone accurate
predictions can be made, but it is not yet the time for such precision.
These initial guesses are tested with general statements that lightly
touch possible problems, all along watching for reactions. This is the
crucial step. The clients reactions guide his statements as he goes from
the general to the more specific, they lead the way to more and more precise
assessments of what is bothering the client, while allowing him
to abandon dead ends or wrong guesses. As more accurate statements are made
the client becomes increasingly convinced that the cold
reader is divining the truth by some extra sensory means.
Feedback is the cold reader's life blood, so if feedback is in short supply
there are some effective methods for eliciting reactions, including
'try-ons' and muscle reading. Try-ons are subtle statements designed to
prompt a reaction. They can include remarks like "I'm getting the
feeling that..." or "I want to say that..." etc. They are not direct
questions but they can be very effective in producing a response. Often the
person does not even realize that he has answered these promptings. After a
suitable delay the cold reader will then repeat what has just
been learned to the amazement of his audience. Verbal feedback to try-ons
and other ploys helps explain the phenomenal success of psychic
hotlines, which is now almost a billion dollar a year industry. Visual
feedback is not vital to experienced cold readers, verbal feedback alone
often provides enough information so that the subjects are virtually open
books. Deprived of feedback, the process of cold reading grinds to
a halt.
Muscle reading is yet another tool for surreptitiously acquiring
information. It involves direct contact with the person being read, either
holding a hand or an arm or touching something the client is holding like a
handkerchief. Contact like this permits the reading of involuntary
muscle movements that can be used to gauge a clients reaction. These
reactions inform the cold reader if he is hot or cold allowing him to go
from general to more specific statements.
Cold readers also know that certain aspects of human psychology itself helps
in their endeavors. One phenomenon, called subjective
validation or selective memory, is especially important. It involves
remembering significant events and forgetting the insignificant or
unfavorable ones. Any assertion from the cold reader that is correct will
tend to be remembered and the many that are off the mark are
usually forgotten. The Forer Effect is related to selective memory but is
even more apropos to the cold reading scenario. It states that in
general, when people are given many general and specific claims about
themselves, the inaccuracies are overlooked and the general
statements are interpreted as accurate. Both these phenomenon give people a
distorted memory of past events and prevents putting these
events into their true context.
A classic example can be found in James Randi's book, "Flim-Flam". Peter Hurkos
amazed people with his ability to prognosticate. Intimate
details were revealed, convincing people beyond question of his powers. Two
such people were invited by Randi to watch a video tape of
their sessions with Hurkos. It was "discovered by actual count that this
so-called psychic had, on the average, been correct in one out of
fourteen of his statements!....Selective thinking had led them to dismiss
all the apparent misses and the obviously wrong guesses and
remember only the 'hits.'" So powerful is this phenomenon that even when
people are confronted with this information many still believe that
psychic powers alone produced the insights.
Knowledge of cold reading is essential to the skeptic. It lifts the veil of
mystery from the alleged psychic and reveals the little man behind the
curtain. Such knowledge focuses the harsh light of reality upon a vast array
of seemingly paranormal phenomenon. It is a fundamental and
powerful weapon in the skeptic's aresenal.
Bob Novella is a co-founder of the New England Skeptical Society. This article first appeared in their newsletter.
� Copyright, New England Skeptical Society. Used with permission.
